Quez Watkins Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Quez Watkins

NFL · Player Props

Quez Watkins

WR · Philadelphia Eagles

Receiving TD

Chicago Bears vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:26 AM EST

Analysis

Quez Watkins Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+376/-768).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +382 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +376.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles as the 7th-fastest paced defense in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment, with opposing offenses averaging 27.58 seconds per play.
THE BLITZ projects Quez Watkins to be a more important option in his offense's passing game near the end zone this week (16.6% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (6.8% in games he has played).
The Philadelphia Eagles O-line ranks as the best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all passing game stats across the board.
Quez Watkins's possession skills have improved this year, with his Completion% jumping from 67.0% to 78.8%.
The Chicago Bears pass defense has given up the 7th-highest Completion% in the NFL (70%) to wide receivers this year (70.0%).

Favors Under

The Eagles are a massive 8.5-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
The weather forecast calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
Opposing QBs have averaged 28.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Chicago Bears defense this year: least in football.
Quez Watkins has compiled significantly fewer air yards this year (26.0 per game) than he did last year (52.0 per game).
Quez Watkins's 21.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly worse this season than it was last season at 36.1.

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