Quez Watkins Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Quez Watkins

NFL · Player Props

Quez Watkins

WR · Philadelphia Eagles

Receiving TD

New York Giants vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 11, 2022 5:56 PM UTC

Analysis

Quez Watkins Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+339/-647).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -638 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -647.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 136.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Quez Watkins to be a much bigger part of his offense's pass game near the goal line this week (13.1% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (7.1% in games he has played).
The Philadelphia Eagles O-line profiles as the best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all pass game stats across the board.
Quez Watkins's sure-handedness have gotten a boost this year, with his Completion% increasing from 67.0% to 78.2%.
The New York Giants linebackers rank as the 3rd-worst LB corps in the league this year in covering receivers.

Favors Under

The Eagles are a 6.5-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a rushing game script.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 34.2 pass attempts per game against the New York Giants defense this year: 5th-least in football.
Quez Watkins has posted quite a few less air yards this year (24.0 per game) than he did last year (52.0 per game).
Quez Watkins's 20.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly lower this year than it was last year at 36.1.
The New York Giants pass defense has surrendered the 6th-lowest Completion% in the league (63.1%) versus wideouts this year (63.1%).

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