Quez Watkins Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Quez Watkins

NFL · Player Props

Quez Watkins

WR · Philadelphia Eagles

Receiving TD

Philadelphia Eagles vs Green Bay Packers · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 28, 2022 1:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Quez Watkins Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+266/-460).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +401 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +266.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Eagles to run the 7th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 66.6 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Quez Watkins to be a more important option in his offense's pass game near the goal line this week (12.0% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (5.9% in games he has played).
The Philadelphia Eagles offensive line grades out as the 4th-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all air attack stats across the board.
Quez Watkins's possession skills have gotten a boost this year, with his Completion% increasing from 71.3% to 81.9%.
The Green Bay Packers pass defense has conceded the 7th-highest Completion% in the league (69.6%) to WRs this year (69.6%).

Favors Under

The Eagles are a 6.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
The weather forecast calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
Opposing offenses have averaged 28.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Green Bay Packers defense this year: 2nd-least in the league.
Quez Watkins has accumulated significantly fewer air yards this season (22.0 per game) than he did last season (44.0 per game).
Quez Watkins's 17.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit worse this season than it was last season at 33.9.

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