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Quentin Johnston

Quentin Johnston Receptions
Player Prop Week 3

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Los Angeles Chargers

Quentin Johnston Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+120/-155).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -145 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -155.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The 9th-highest number of plays in football have been called by the Los Angeles Chargers since the start of last season (a whopping 59.8 per game on average).

The passing offenses of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm weather conditions (2-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while rush volume may suffer.

In this week's game, Quentin Johnston is projected by the model to slot into the 83rd percentile among WRs with 7.2 targets.

While Quentin Johnston has received 12.0% of his team's targets in games he has played since the start of last season, the predictive model expects him to be a more important option in Los Angeles's offense in this week's game at 24.0%.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Los Angeles Chargers to pass on 52.9% of their downs: the 3rd-lowest clip among all teams this week.

The predictive model expects the Chargers to run the 8th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 62.6 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.

Quentin Johnston rates as one of the most hard-handed receivers in the NFL, hauling in just 57.2% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, grading out in the 16th percentile among wideouts

The Pittsburgh Steelers pass defense has allowed the 7th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (62.1%) vs. WRs since the start of last season (62.1%).

As it relates to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Pittsburgh's group of safeties has been great since the start of last season, projecting as the 2nd-best in the NFL.

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