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Quentin Johnston

Quentin Johnston Receptions
Player Prop Week 13

Atlanta Falcons vs Los Angeles Chargers

 
 
 
Quentin Johnston Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-154/+112).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -166 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ +112.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
  • The Falcons defense has been something of pass funnel this year, tempting opposing offenses to attempt the 7th-most passes in football (36.7 per game) this year.
  • Quentin Johnston's 47.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that measures high-value offensive volume) has been significantly better this year than it was last year at 28.5.
  • The Falcons pass defense has yielded the highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (73.8%) vs. wide receivers this year (73.8%).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • At the present time, the 8th-slowest paced offense in football (adjusted for context) according to the model is the Los Angeles Chargers.
  • Quentin Johnston's sure-handedness have improved this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate rising from 57.1% to 60.6%.
  • The Atlanta Falcons safeties grade out as the 10th-best collection of safeties in the NFL this year in defending pass-catchers.

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