Quentin Johnston Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Quentin Johnston

NFL · Player Props

Quentin Johnston

WR · Los Angeles Chargers

Receptions

Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 22, 2023 11:16 PM EST

Analysis

Quentin Johnston Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-170/+130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chargers are a 5.5-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
The model projects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 2nd-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 62.6% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Los Angeles Chargers are projected by the predictive model to run 66.9 offensive plays in this contest: the 2nd-most among all teams this week.

Favors Under

The Chargers feature a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to lean 1.8% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
Opposing teams have averaged 33.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 7th-fewest in the league.
Quentin Johnston comes in as one of the weakest wide receivers in the league this year, averaging just 1.1 adjusted catches per game while checking in at the 21st percentile among wideouts.
With a lackluster 47.9% Adjusted Catch Rate (17th percentile) this year, Quentin Johnston places as one of the worst possession receivers in the NFL when it comes to wideouts.
The Chiefs pass defense has yielded the 7th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (60.5%) to WRs this year (60.5%).

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