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Quentin Johnston Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 39.5 (-120/-109).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 40.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 39.5 @ -109.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The weatherman calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, and reduced run volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 40.6 pass attempts per game versus the Buccaneers defense this year: most in the NFL.After accruing 49.0 air yards per game last season, Quentin Johnston has been rising this season, now sitting at 65.0 per game.Quentin Johnston's 47.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive volume) has been notably higher this year than it was last year at 28.5.Quentin Johnston has accumulated substantially more adjusted receiving yards per game (36.0) this season than he did last season (25.0).
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 127.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.The Chargers have run the 4th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a mere 54.4 plays per game.With a poor 55.2% Adjusted Completion Rate (14th percentile) this year, Quentin Johnston rates among the worst possession receivers in football among wideouts.Quentin Johnston has been one of the least efficient pass-catchers in the NFL, averaging a mere 7.51 adjusted yards-per-target this year while grading out in the 25th percentile when it comes to wideoutsThis year, the strong Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has surrendered the 4th-least adjusted yards-per-target in the league to opposing wide receivers: a measly 7.5 yards.
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