Quentin Johnston Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Quentin Johnston

NFL · Player Props

Quentin Johnston

WR · Los Angeles Chargers

Receiving Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 22, 2023 11:16 PM UTC

Analysis

Quentin Johnston Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 21.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 20.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 21.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chargers are a 5.5-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
The model projects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 2nd-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 62.6% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Los Angeles Chargers are projected by the predictive model to run 66.9 offensive plays in this contest: the 2nd-most among all teams this week.

Favors Under

The Chargers feature a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to lean 1.8% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
Opposing teams have averaged 33.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 7th-fewest in the league.
Quentin Johnston ranks as one of the bottom pass-catching wide receivers this year, averaging a measly 9.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 14th percentile among wide receivers.
With a lackluster 47.9% Adjusted Catch Rate (17th percentile) this year, Quentin Johnston places as one of the worst possession receivers in the NFL when it comes to wideouts.
Quentin Johnston rates as one of the least effective pass-catchers in the NFL, averaging just 3.78 adjusted yards-per-target this year while checking in at the 10th percentile among WRs

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