Quentin Johnston Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Quentin Johnston

NFL · Player Props

Quentin Johnston

WR · Los Angeles Chargers

Receiving Yards

New England Patriots vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 3, 2023 8:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Quentin Johnston Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-103/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 15.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 16.5 @ -103.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 5th-most pass-oriented offense in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 65.3% pass rate.
The projections expect the Los Angeles Chargers to call the 3rd-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 67.0 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics.
As it relates to cornerbacks in covering pass-catchers, New England's group of CBs has been lousy this year, projecting as the 5th-worst in the NFL.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Los Angeles Chargers offensive approach to tilt 2.1% more towards the ground game than it did last season (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Kellen Moore now calling the plays.
With a 4.5-point advantage, the Chargers are favored in this week's game, implying more of an emphasis on running than their typical game plan.
With a weak 56.9% Adjusted Catch Rate (13th percentile) this year, Quentin Johnston rates as one of the most unreliable receivers in the league when it comes to wideouts.
With a feeble 5.7 adjusted yards per target (5th percentile) this year, Quentin Johnston places as one of the weakest pass-catching WRs in the league.
The New England Patriots pass defense has performed very well when opposing WRs have gotten into space, yielding an average of 3.64 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 9th-fewest in the NFL.

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