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Puka Nacua

Puka Nacua Receptions
Player Prop Week 12

Los Angeles Rams vs Philadelphia Eagles

Puka Nacua Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-106/-129).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ -166 before it was bet up to 6.5 @ -106.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

A passing game script is implied by the Rams being a -3-point underdog in this game.

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Rams to pass on 63.4% of their downs: the greatest clip among all teams this week.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is predicted by the projections to have 132.7 total plays called: the 3rd-most out of all the games this week.

The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (0-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while rush volume may drop.

This week, Puka Nacua is anticipated by the projections to find himself in the 97th percentile among WRs with 9.8 targets.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Opposing teams teams have been reluctant to pass too much against the Philadelphia Eagles, totaling the 10th-fewest attempts in football (a measly 32.3 per game) this year.

The Los Angeles O-line grades out as the 7th-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all air attack statistics across the board.

The Philadelphia Eagles pass defense has allowed the 3rd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (58.9%) to wideouts this year (58.9%).

As it relates to cornerbacks in covering pass-catchers, Philadelphia's CB corps has been exceptional this year, ranking as the best in football.

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