Puka Nacua Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Puka Nacua

NFL · Player Props

Puka Nacua

WR · Los Angeles Rams

Receptions

Green Bay Packers vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 6, 2023 3:46 AM UTC

Analysis

Puka Nacua Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-115/-119).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ +112 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -119.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Rams will be rolling with backup quarterback Brett Rypien in this contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
This game's line indicates a passing game script for the Rams, who are -3.5-point underdogs.
The 9th-largest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Rams this year (a colossal 60.9 per game on average).
The leading projections forecast Puka Nacua to accumulate 9.4 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 94th percentile when it comes to wideouts.
Puka Nacua has been a key part of his team's offense, garnering a Target Share of 33.5% this year, which ranks him in the 99th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.

Favors Under

Based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Rams are forecasted by the model to run only 62.5 total plays in this contest: the 5th-lowest number on the slate this week.
The Rams offensive line profiles as the 8th-worst in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative influence on all passing attack metrics across the board.
When it comes to cornerbacks in covering receivers, Green Bay's unit has been tremendous this year, ranking as the 7th-best in the league.

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