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Puka Nacua

Puka Nacua Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 15

San Francisco 49ers vs Los Angeles Rams

Puka Nacua Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 88.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 80.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 88.5 @ -130.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

This week's spread suggests a throwing game script for the Rams, who are -3-point underdogs.

Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Rams to pass on 60.6% of their downs: the 9th-greatest frequency on the slate this week.

The model projects Puka Nacua to earn 10.7 targets in this week's game, on balance, placing him in the 100th percentile among wide receivers.

Puka Nacua rates as one of the leading wide receivers in the league this year, averaging an outstanding 92.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 99th percentile.

Puka Nacua's 71.8% Adjusted Completion% this year reflects a meaningful growth in his receiving proficiency over last year's 67.4% rate.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Opposing QBs have averaged 30.8 pass attempts per game versus the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 4th-fewest in the league.

Puka Nacua has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this year (66.7% Route Participation Rate in games he has played) than he did last year (91.7%).

After totaling 89.0 air yards per game last year, Puka Nacua has been a disappointment this year, currently boasting 84.0 per game.

As it relates to protecting the passer (and the importance it has on all pass game metrics), the O-line of the Rams grades out as the 3rd-worst in football this year.

The 49ers defense has allowed the 5th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 131.0) to wide receivers this year.

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