P.J. Walker TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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P.J. Walker

NFL · Player Props

P.J. Walker

QB · Cleveland Browns

TD Passes

Seattle Seahawks vs Cleveland Browns · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 29, 2023 10:51 PM EST

Analysis

P.J. Walker TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-200/+165).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ +210 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ +165.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Browns will be rolling with backup QB PJ Walker in this week's game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
A throwing game script is suggested by the Browns being a -3.5-point underdog in this week's contest.
Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Browns are forecasted by the model to run 66.1 plays on offense in this contest: the 7th-most among all teams this week.
The 3rd-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Cleveland Browns this year (a staggering 65.7 per game on average).
The Seahawks defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, leading opposing teams to attempt the 6th-most passes in the NFL (39.2 per game) this year.

Favors Under

Our trusted projections expect the Cleveland Browns as the 9th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 55.1% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
At the moment, the 8th-least pass-oriented team in football near the end zone (53.3% in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Cleveland Browns.
Phillip Walker has attempted a measly 21.9 throws per game since the start of last season, grading out in the 13th percentile among quarterbacks.
Phillip Walker's throwing precision has tailed off this season, with his Adjusted Completion% decreasing from 57.3% to 48.7%.
With a terrible ratio of only 0.38 per game (7th percentile), Phillip Walker places as one of the bottom touchdown throwers in football since the start of last season.

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