P.J. Walker Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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P.J. Walker

NFL · Player Props

P.J. Walker

QB · Cleveland Browns

Rushing Yards

Cleveland Browns vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 15, 2023 7:31 PM EST

Analysis

P.J. Walker Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-131/-104).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 14.5 @ -119 before it was bet down to 11.5 @ -104.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Cleveland Browns to be the 9th-most run-heavy offense in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 41.8% run rate.
The 2nd-most plays in the league have been called by the Browns this year (a whopping 66.2 per game on average).
Windy weather conditions (like the 15-mph being projected in this game) typically cause decreased passing efficiency, lower pass volume, and increased rush volume.
The Browns offensive line ranks as the 10th-best in football last year at run-game blocking.

Favors Under

The Browns may take to the air less in this game (and call more carries) since they be rolling with backup quarterback PJ Walker.
A passing game script is suggested by the Browns being a -6.5-point underdog this week.
Our trusted projections expect the Browns to call the fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 61.6 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
This week, Phillip Walker is predicted by the projection model to garner the 10th-fewest rush attempts out of all QBs with 3.0.
The San Francisco 49ers defense has had the best efficiency against opposing rushing attacks since the start of last season, conceding just 3.50 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC).

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