P.J. Walker Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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NFL · Player Props

P.J. Walker

QB · Carolina Panthers

Rushing Yards

Atlanta Falcons vs Carolina Panthers · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 7:26 PM UTC

Analysis

P.J. Walker Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+105/-139).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -116 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -139.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers to be the 7th-most run-heavy offense in football (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 41.4% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects Phillip Walker to be much more involved in his offense's rushing attack this week (9.4% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (0.0% in games he has played).
The Atlanta Falcons linebackers project as the 8th-worst LB corps in the league this year in regard to run defense.
The Atlanta Falcons have stacked the box versus opponents on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in football. Choosing not to bring an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Carolina Panthers have gone no-huddle on 11.3% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (10th-most in the league). This speeds up the pace, resulting in more volume and stat accumulation.

Favors Under

The Carolina Panthers will be forced to utilize backup QB PJ Walker in this contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
The Panthers are a 4.5-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Panthers to run the 3rd-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 61.3 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Carolina Panthers have run the least plays in the NFL this year, averaging a lowly 51.6 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.