P.J. Walker Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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NFL · Player Props

P.J. Walker

QB · Carolina Panthers

Rushing Yards

Carolina Panthers vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 11, 2022 1:16 AM UTC

Analysis

P.J. Walker Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-120/-108).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 6.5 @ -118 before it was bet up to 6.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Carolina Panthers boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 3.2% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers to be the 7th-most run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 46.6% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Phillip Walker to be a more important option in his team's rushing attack this week (7.6% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (0.0% in games he has played).
The Carolina Panthers offensive line ranks as the 9th-best in the NFL this year at blocking for the run game.
The Atlanta Falcons have stacked the box against opponents on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in football. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

The Carolina Panthers will be forced to utilize backup QB PJ Walker in this week's contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
THE BLITZ projects the Panthers to run the 2nd-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 61.9 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Carolina Panthers have run the 2nd-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling just 52.4 plays per game.
Phillip Walker has averaged just 0.4 carries per game this year, one of the smallest rates in the league among QBs (3rd percentile).
Phillip Walker has picked up a mere 5.0 rushing yards per game this year, one of the smallest figures in the NFL among quarterbacks (24th percentile).