Phillip Lindsay Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 5

NFL · Player Props

Phillip Lindsay

RB · Indianapolis Colts

Rushing TD

Denver Broncos vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 6, 2022 11:35 PM UTC

Analysis

Phillip Lindsay Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+281/-482).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +309 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +281.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Indianapolis Colts have run the 7th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 64.2 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Phillip Lindsay to be a more integral piece of his offense's running game near the end zone this week (30.5% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (15.4% in games he has played).
The Denver Broncos defensive ends project as the worst collection of DEs in the league this year when it comes to stopping the run.
The Denver Broncos have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 9.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the league. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Indianapolis Colts have risked going for it on 4th down 23.6% of the time since the start of last season (7th-most in the NFL), which generally means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive metrics across the board.

Favors Under

The Colts are a 3-point underdog in this game, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to play at the 11th-slowest pace on the slate this week, averaging 26.33 seconds per play based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Indianapolis Colts O-line ranks as the 2nd-worst in the league this year at run-game blocking.
Opposing offenses have run for the 6th-least touchdowns in the NFL (0.50 per game) vs. the Denver Broncos defense this year.
The Indianapolis Colts have gone no-huddle on a measly 2.7% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in the NFL). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat accumulation.