Phillip Dorsett Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Phillip Dorsett

NFL · Player Props

Phillip Dorsett

WR · Houston Texans

Receptions

Houston Texans vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 4, 2022 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Phillip Dorsett Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+135/-175).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +150 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.4% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
The Texans are a heavy 13.5-point underdog in this week's game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans as the most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 69.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 133.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Houston Texans have run the 6th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a mere 55.4 plays per game.
Phillip Dorsett has been among the bottom WRs in the league this year, averaging a mere 0.8 receptions per game while grading out in the 12th percentile among wideouts.
Phillip Dorsett has been among the least sure-handed receivers in the NFL, completing a measly 35.7% of passes thrown his way this year, checking in at the 8th percentile among wideouts
The Philadelphia Eagles pass defense has allowed the lowest Completion% in the league (55.6%) to wide receivers this year (55.6%).
The Philadelphia Eagles cornerbacks rank as the 2nd-best unit in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

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