Phillip Dorsett Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Phillip Dorsett

NFL · Player Props

Phillip Dorsett

WR · Houston Texans

Receptions

Houston Texans vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:26 AM UTC

Analysis

Phillip Dorsett Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-148/+108).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ +116 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ +108.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Houston Texans will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.7% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The Texans are an enormous 14.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans to be the 2nd-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 66.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing teams have averaged 37.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 5th-most in football.

Favors Under

The Houston Texans have run the 8th-least plays in football this year, averaging a lowly 54.4 plays per game.
The Houston Texans offensive line ranks as the worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
Phillip Dorsett has been among the worst wide receivers in the NFL this year, averaging a measly 1.2 receptions per game while checking in at the 16th percentile among wideouts.
Phillip Dorsett has been among the most hard-handed receivers in the NFL, catching a measly 47.3% of passes thrown his way this year, ranking in the 17th percentile among wideouts
The Kansas City Chiefs cornerbacks grade out as the 5th-best CB corps in the league this year in covering receivers.

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