Phillip Dorsett Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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NFL · Player Props

Phillip Dorsett

WR · Houston Texans

Receiving TD

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Houston Texans · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Phillip Dorsett Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+378/-774).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -760 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -774.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Texans are a heavy 7-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans offense to be the 3rd-fastest paced team in football (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 26.40 seconds per snap.
THE BLITZ projects Phillip Dorsett to be much more involved in his offense's passing attack near the goal line this week (7.4% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (0.0% in games he has played).
The Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has given up the highest Completion% in football (72.8%) vs. WRs since the start of last season (72.8%).
The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has allowed the 8th-most passing TDs in the NFL to wideouts: 1.25 per game this year.

Favors Under

The weather forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
Phillip Dorsett's 7.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably lower this year than it was last year at 22.0.
Phillip Dorsett grades out in the 1st percentile among wideouts when it comes to catching TDs since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 0.00 per game.
The Jacksonville Jaguars linebackers profile as the 6th-best unit in the league this year in covering receivers.
The Houston Texans O-line has allowed their quarterback just 2.33 seconds before getting pressured (worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.