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Phillip Dorsett

Phillip Dorsett Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 5

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Houston Texans

 
 
 
Phillip Dorsett Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+378/-774).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -760 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -774.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Texans are a heavy 7-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating an extreme passing game script.
  • THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans offense to be the 3rd-fastest paced team in football (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 26.40 seconds per snap.
  • THE BLITZ projects Phillip Dorsett to be much more involved in his offense's passing attack near the goal line this week (7.4% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (0.0% in games he has played).
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has given up the highest Completion% in football (72.8%) vs. WRs since the start of last season (72.8%).
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has allowed the 8th-most passing TDs in the NFL to wideouts: 1.25 per game this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The weather forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
  • Phillip Dorsett's 7.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably lower this year than it was last year at 22.0.
  • Phillip Dorsett grades out in the 1st percentile among wideouts when it comes to catching TDs since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 0.00 per game.
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars linebackers profile as the 6th-best unit in the league this year in covering receivers.
  • The Houston Texans O-line has allowed their quarterback just 2.33 seconds before getting pressured (worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.

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