Phillip Dorsett Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Phillip Dorsett

NFL · Player Props

Phillip Dorsett

WR · Houston Texans

Receiving TD

Houston Texans vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:26 AM EST

Analysis

Phillip Dorsett Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+354/-695).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -670 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -695.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Texans are an enormous 14.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing teams have averaged 37.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 5th-most in football.
THE BLITZ projects Phillip Dorsett to be much more involved in his team's passing attack near the goal line this week (12.9% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (2.3% in games he has played).
The Kansas City Chiefs pass defense has surrendered the 6th-highest Completion% in the league (70.2%) versus wide receivers this year (70.2%).

Favors Under

The Houston Texans have run the 8th-least plays in football this year, averaging a lowly 54.4 plays per game.
The Houston Texans offensive line ranks as the worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
Phillip Dorsett has been among the most hard-handed receivers in the NFL, catching a measly 47.3% of passes thrown his way this year, ranking in the 17th percentile among wideouts
The Kansas City Chiefs cornerbacks grade out as the 5th-best CB corps in the league this year in covering receivers.
The Houston Texans offensive line has afforded their QB a measly 2.33 seconds before getting pressured (worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all pass attack stats across the board.

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