Phillip Dorsett Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Phillip Dorsett

NFL · Player Props

Phillip Dorsett

WR · Houston Texans

Receiving TD

Dallas Cowboys vs Houston Texans · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 11, 2022 5:56 PM UTC

Analysis

Phillip Dorsett Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+417/-919).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +420 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +417.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Texans are an enormous 17.5-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the most plays run out of all the games this week at 136.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Phillip Dorsett to be a more important option in his offense's passing game near the goal line this week (15.0% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (2.3% in games he has played).
The Dallas Cowboys defense has given up the 5th-most touchdowns through the air in football to WRs: 1.08 per game this year.

Favors Under

The Houston Texans have run the 4th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 54.0 plays per game.
The Houston Texans offensive line profiles as the worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.
Phillip Dorsett has been among the least sure-handed receivers in the league, hauling in a mere 45.0% of balls thrown his way this year, ranking in the 13th percentile among WRs
The Dallas Cowboys pass defense has allowed the 8th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (64%) versus WRs this year (64.0%).
The Dallas Cowboys linebackers project as the 3rd-best collection of LBs in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

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