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Pharaoh Brown

Pharaoh Brown Receptions
Player Prop Week 16

Denver Broncos vs New England Patriots

Pharaoh Brown Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+160/-200).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +180 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +160.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

A throwing game script is indicated by the Patriots being a -6.5-point underdog this week.

The model projects Pharaoh Brown to be a much bigger part of his offense's pass game in this game (7.5% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (2.0% in games he has played).

With an outstanding 100.0% Adjusted Completion% (100th percentile) this year, Pharaoh Brown ranks among the best possession receivers in football among tight ends.

The Denver Broncos pass defense has allowed the 4th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (78.6%) versus TEs this year (78.6%).

As it relates to linebackers in defending receivers, Denver's unit has been terrible this year, projecting as the worst in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 58.5% rate of throwing the ball (adjusted for context) this year, the 7th-least pass-oriented offense in the NFL has been the New England Patriots.

The projections expect the Patriots to run the fewest total plays on the slate this week with 61.8 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.

When it comes to protecting the quarterback (and the ramifications it has on all pass attack stats), the O-line of the Patriots profiles as the 9th-worst in the NFL this year.

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