Pharaoh Brown Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Pharaoh Brown

NFL · Player Props

Pharaoh Brown

TE · Houston Texans

Receptions

Chicago Bears vs Houston Texans · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 4:25 PM UTC

Analysis

Pharaoh Brown Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+130/-170).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +145 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.7% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The Texans are a 3-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
Pharaoh Brown has been on the field for 65.3% of his team's snaps since the start of last season, putting him in the 76th percentile among tight ends.
Pharaoh Brown's sure-handedness have gotten better this season, with his Completion% rising from 69.1% to 78.4%.
The Chicago Bears defensive ends grade out as the 6th-worst unit in the league since the start of last season in regard to pass rush.

Favors Under

The Houston Texans have run the 3rd-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a mere 59.7 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 27.4 pass attempts per game against the Chicago Bears defense since the start of last season: least in the NFL.
The Houston Texans offensive line grades out as the 7th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
The Chicago Bears pass defense has given up the 4th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (64.7%) to TEs since the start of last season (64.7%).
The Houston Texans offensive line has afforded their quarterback just 2.33 seconds before getting pressured (worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all air attack statistics across the board.

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