Pharaoh Brown Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 2

NFL · Player Props

Pharaoh Brown

TE · Houston Texans

Receptions

Denver Broncos vs Houston Texans · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 11:25 PM EST

Analysis

Pharaoh Brown Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+106/-137).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +112 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +106.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.6% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The Texans are a massive 10-point underdog in this week's game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans as the 5th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 63.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans offense to be the 5th-fastest paced team in football (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 25.58 seconds per snap.
Pharaoh Brown has played on 64.6% of his team's snaps since the start of last season, placing him in the 76th percentile among tight ends.

Favors Under

Opposing offenses have averaged 31.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Denver Broncos defense since the start of last season: 6th-least in the league.
The Houston Texans offensive line ranks as the 5th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all passing game statistics across the board.
The Denver Broncos linebackers profile as the 4th-best group of LBs in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
The Houston Texans O-line has afforded their quarterback just 2.33 seconds before getting pressured (worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.
The Denver Broncos have stacked the box against opponents on just 9.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in football. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.