Patrick Taylor Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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NFL · Player Props

Patrick Taylor

RB · Green Bay Packers

Receiving Yards

Green Bay Packers vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 4, 2023 1:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Patrick Taylor Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-119/-109).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 8.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 7.5 @ -109.

Key Factors

Favors Over

A passing game script is indicated by the Packers being a -5.5-point underdog in this game.
The predictive model expects the Green Bay Packers as the 6th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 60.6% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
Patrick Taylor's 34.8% Route Participation Rate this year marks an impressive growth in his pass attack volume over last year's 5.6% mark.
When it comes to air yards, Patrick Taylor grades out in the towering 79th percentile among running backs this year, averaging a striking 1.0 per game. (because they are often targeted behind the line of scrimmage, this is far more noteworthy than it sounds since most RBs have negative air yards).
The Chiefs safeties rank as the 10th-worst safety corps in football this year in defending pass-catchers.

Favors Under

Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Packers are predicted by the predictive model to call only 64.0 total plays in this contest: the 7th-lowest number on the slate this week.
The 8th-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the Packers this year (a lowly 55.5 per game on average).
Opposing offenses have averaged 31.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 4th-fewest in the league.
Patrick Taylor checks in as one of the most hard-handed receivers in the NFL when it comes to RBs, completing a mere 58.9% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, ranking in the 10th percentile.
With a bad 3.1 adjusted yards per target (15th percentile) this year, Patrick Taylor stands among the weakest pass-game running backs in the league.