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Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes TD Passes
Player Prop Week 9

Kansas City Chiefs vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Patrick Mahomes TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -135.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The predictive model expects the Chiefs to be the 6th-most pass-focused offense in the league near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 59.6% red zone pass rate.

The projections expect this game to have the 5th-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 130.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Buccaneers defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, allowing opposing teams to attempt the 4th-most passes in football (38.6 per game) this year.

The Kansas City Chiefs O-line profiles as the 2nd-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all passing game statistics across the board.

With an impressive 68.6% Adjusted Completion% (81st percentile) this year, Patrick Mahomes stands as one of the best precision passers in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Chiefs are a huge 8.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.

Our trusted projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs as the least pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 56.9% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.

The projections expect Patrick Mahomes to attempt 35.1 passes in this contest, on balance: the fewest among all quarterbacks.

The Tampa Bay cornerbacks project as the best collection of CBs in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

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