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Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes TD Passes
Player Prop Week 8

Las Vegas Raiders vs Kansas City Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -115.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At the moment, the 2nd-most pass-centric team in the NFL (64.8% in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the Kansas City Chiefs.

The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may slide.

The Kansas City Chiefs O-line ranks as the 5th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong influence on all passing attack metrics across the board.

Patrick Mahomes is positioned as one of the most on-target quarterbacks in football this year with a fantastic 68.6% Adjusted Completion%, grading out in the 81st percentile.

Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 9th-highest clip in football vs. the Raiders defense this year (72.1% Adjusted Completion%).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 9-point advantage, the Chiefs are heavily favored this week, suggesting much more of a focus on running than their usual approach.

At the moment, the 7th-most sluggish paced offense in the league (in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the Chiefs.

Opposing quarterbacks teams have been wary to test the pass defense of the Raiders, averaging the 2nd-fewest attempts in football (a measly 29.0 per game) this year.

The Las Vegas Raiders defense has conceded the 8th-fewest passing touchdowns in the NFL: 1.14 per game this year.

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