My Account Log Out

reorder

Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes TD Passes
Player Prop Week 7

San Francisco 49ers vs Kansas City Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-122/-106).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -109 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -122.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 64.7% of their opportunities: the greatest frequency among all teams this week.

Our trusted projections expect the Chiefs to be the 3rd-most pass-centric offense in football near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 62.1% red zone pass rate.

In this week's game, Patrick Mahomes is expected by our trusted projection set to have the 3rd-most pass attempts among all QBs with 38.8.

The Kansas City Chiefs O-line ranks as the 8th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive impact on all air attack metrics across the board.

With a terrific 70.0% Adjusted Completion% (84th percentile) this year, Patrick Mahomes has been among the most accurate passers in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The model projects this game to have the 3rd-smallest number of plays run on the slate this week at 125.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

This year, the daunting San Francisco 49ers defense has yielded a mere 66.7% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 5th-lowest rate in football.

When it comes to linebackers in pass coverage, San Francisco's LB corps has been very good this year, ranking as the 2nd-best in the league.

More Patrick Mahomes Player Props

© 2022 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™