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Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes TD Passes
Player Prop Week 5

Kansas City Chiefs vs New Orleans Saints

Patrick Mahomes TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+110/-140).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -130 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -140.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The model projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the most pass-oriented team in football (adjusted for context) right now with a 66.7% pass rate.

The weather forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and reduced run volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.

Opposing QBs have averaged 39.8 pass attempts per game versus the Saints defense this year: 4th-most in the NFL.

In regards to pass protection (and the strong impact it has on all passing offense statistics), the O-line of the Kansas City Chiefs profiles as the 5th-best in the NFL this year.

Patrick Mahomes has been one of the leading TD throwers in the league this year, averaging a fantastic 1.50 per game while grading out in the 84th percentile.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This game's spread implies an extreme rushing game script for the Chiefs, who are a heavy favorite by 8 points.

The model projects this game to have the smallest number of plays run on the slate this week at 124.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The smallest volume of plays in football have been run by the Chiefs this year (a mere 54.0 per game on average).

This year, the imposing New Orleans Saints defense has surrendered a paltry 66.4% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 6th-best rate in football.

The Saints defense has conceded the fewest TDs through the air in the NFL: 0.25 per game this year.

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