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Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes TD Passes
Player Prop Week 3

Atlanta Falcons vs Kansas City Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-170/+130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +160 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +130.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Our trusted projections expect the Chiefs as the most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 64.4% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

Our trusted projections expect the Chiefs to be the 2nd-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 58.8% red zone pass rate.

Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 3rd-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 131.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

Our trusted projections expect Patrick Mahomes to attempt 39.5 passes this week, on balance: the most out of all quarterbacks.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

A rushing game script is suggested by the Chiefs being a 3-point favorite in this game.

Since the start of last season, the formidable Atlanta Falcons defense has yielded a measly 67.5% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 8th-lowest rate in the league.

The Falcons linebackers grade out as the 10th-best collection of LBs in the NFL since the start of last season in pass coverage.

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