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Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes TD Passes
Player Prop Week 22

Philadelphia Eagles vs Kansas City Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-150/+120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +140 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +120.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Right now, the 2nd-most pass-oriented team in the league (68.3% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Chiefs.

The model projects the Chiefs offense to be the 7th-quickest paced team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 27.02 seconds per snap.

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.

In registering a massive 33.8 pass attempts per game this year, Patrick Mahomes ranks among the top QBs in football (82nd percentile) by this measure.

The Chiefs offensive line profiles as the 5th-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all passing game metrics across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Opposing quarterbacks teams have been disinclined to pass too much against the Eagles, averaging the fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 26.4 per game) this year.

Opposing teams have completed passes at the 3rd-lowest rate in the league vs. the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year (67.4% Adjusted Completion%).

This year, the formidable Eagles defense has yielded a paltry 1.25 touchdowns through the air per game to opposing QBs: the 6th-lowest rate in the NFL.

When it comes to cornerbacks in defending pass-catchers, Philadelphia's unit has been fantastic this year, ranking as the best in the league.

More Patrick Mahomes Player Props

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