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Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes TD Passes
Player Prop Week 21

Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills

Patrick Mahomes TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-150/+115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +135 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +115.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The model projects the Chiefs as the most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 64.2% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.

Our trusted projections expect the Chiefs to be the 3rd-most pass-focused team in football near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 63.7% red zone pass rate.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is forecasted by the projections to see just 132.5 plays on offense run: the fewest out of all the games this week.

The 10th-most plays in football have been called by the Kansas City Chiefs this year (a staggering 58.6 per game on average).

The weather forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, and lower ground volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

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