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Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes TD Passes
Player Prop Week 17

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Kansas City Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -120.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Our trusted projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 4th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 62.9% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.

The predictive model expects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 3rd-most pass-focused offense in football near the end zone (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 62.8% red zone pass rate.

The projections expect this game to see the 2nd-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 134.2 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics.

The Kansas City Chiefs have called the 2nd-most plays in the league this year, averaging a whopping 61.6 plays per game.

Calm weather conditions (like the 1-mph wind being predicted in this game) generally lead to better passing efficiency, increased TD potential, increased pass volume, and lower ground volume.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Steelers defense has conceded the 6th-fewest passing TDs in the league: 1.14 per game this year.

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