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Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes TD Passes
Player Prop Week 16

Kansas City Chiefs vs Houston Texans

Patrick Mahomes TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-100/-130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +105 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -100.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The leading projections forecast the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 8th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 60.8% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

At the moment, the 3rd-most pass-heavy team in the league near the goal line (62.7% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Kansas City Chiefs.

Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 4th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 132.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The 2nd-most plays in the league have been run by the Chiefs this year (a colossal 61.4 per game on average).

The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm weather conditions (4-mph wind) being projected in this game, while run volume may slide.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

A rushing game script is suggested by the Chiefs being a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game.

This year, the formidable Texans defense has surrendered a meager 62.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the best rate in the league.

The Texans cornerbacks project as the 3rd-best unit in football this year in defending pass-catchers.

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