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Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes TD Passes
Player Prop Week 15

Cleveland Browns vs Kansas City Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +100 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -115.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At the present time, the 2nd-most pass-centric offense in football (67.0% adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Kansas City Chiefs.

The model projects this game to have the most plays run out of all the games this week at 148.3 plays, based on the approaches of each team and game dynamics.

The Chiefs have called the 5th-most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 60.7 plays per game.

Our trusted projections expect Patrick Mahomes to attempt 38.7 passes in this game, on average: the 2nd-most out of all QBs.

As it relates to pass-blocking (and the positive impact it has on all passing game stats), the offensive line of the Chiefs profiles as the best in football this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

A rushing game script is implied by the Chiefs being a 4.5-point favorite this week.

Windy weather conditions (like the 17-mph being called for in this game) usually lead to worse passing effectiveness, reduced air volume, and higher ground volume.

Opposing teams have averaged 31.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Browns defense this year: 6th-fewest in the league.

Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 3rd-lowest rate in the league against the Cleveland Browns defense this year (65.8% Adjusted Completion%).

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