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Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes TD Passes
Player Prop Week 14

Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Chargers

Patrick Mahomes TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+102/-132).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Right now, the 2nd-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL (66.6% context-neutralized) according to the projections is the Chiefs.

The Chiefs have called the 5th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a staggering 60.6 plays per game.

Patrick Mahomes has attempted 37.6 throws per game this year, checking in at the 95th percentile among quarterbacks.

In regards to pocket protection (and the strong effect it has on all pass attack stats), the O-line of the Kansas City Chiefs profiles as the best in the league this year.

Patrick Mahomes has been one of the best touchdown throwers in football this year, averaging a stellar 1.58 per game while ranking in the 78th percentile.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This game's spread implies a rushing game script for the Chiefs, who are favored by 4 points.

This year, the formidable Chargers defense has allowed a mere 68.4% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 8th-smallest rate in football.

The Chargers defense has surrendered the 9th-fewest TDs through the air in football: 1.17 per game this year.

The Chargers linebackers project as the 4th-best LB corps in the league this year in covering receivers.

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