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Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes TD Passes
Player Prop Week 11

Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-122/-106).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -101 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -122.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The leading projections forecast the Kansas City Chiefs as the 4th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 61.8% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.

At the moment, the 6th-most pass-heavy offense in the league near the goal line (60.7% in a neutral context) according to our trusted projection set is the Chiefs.

The 3rd-most plays in football have been called by the Kansas City Chiefs this year (a massive 61.3 per game on average).

This week, Patrick Mahomes is predicted by the predictive model to average the 6th-most pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 36.1.

Opposing teams have averaged 35.3 pass attempts per game against the Bills defense this year: 9th-most in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is predicted by the model to have only 124.6 offensive plays run: the fewest on the slate this week.

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