Patrick Mahomes TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Patrick Mahomes

NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

TD Passes

Kansas City Chiefs vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 1, 2024

Updated Sep 6, 2024 12:21 AM EST

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-180/+138).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +138 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +138.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Chiefs to be the most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 65.1% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
The predictive model expects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the most pass-oriented team in the NFL near the end zone (in a neutral context) right now with a 65.6% red zone pass rate.
The leading projections forecast Patrick Mahomes to attempt 39.6 passes in this week's contest, on balance: the most out of all quarterbacks.
Opposing teams have averaged 38.3 pass attempts per game against the Ravens defense last year: most in the league.
The Kansas City Chiefs O-line profiles as the 10th-best in the NFL last year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.

Favors Under

This week's line implies a running game script for the Chiefs, who are favored by 3 points.
In terms of a defense's impact on tempo, at 28.36 seconds per snap, the model projects the Chiefs to be the 6th-most sluggish in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time.
Last year, the stout Ravens defense has conceded a puny 65.4% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 5th-smallest rate in the NFL.
Last year, the daunting Ravens defense has yielded a puny 1.12 passing touchdowns per game to opposing QBs: the smallest rate in football.
The Ravens safeties profile as the best collection of safeties in the NFL last year in covering pass-catchers.

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