Patrick Mahomes TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Patrick Mahomes

NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

TD Passes

Kansas City Chiefs vs Miami Dolphins · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 6, 2023 3:56 AM UTC

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+140/-180).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +160 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Chiefs to pass on 68.4% of their opportunities: the highest frequency among all teams this week.
Right now, the most pass-heavy offense in the league near the end zone (66.0% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Chiefs.
The predictive model expects this game to have the 5th-most plays run on the slate this week at 130.1 plays, given the traits of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
In this game, Patrick Mahomes is predicted by our trusted projection set to average the most pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 42.5.

Favors Under

The Miami Dolphins safeties project as the best safety corps in the league this year in defending receivers.

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