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Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes TD Passes
Player Prop Week 3

Kansas City Chiefs vs Chicago Bears

Patrick Mahomes TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +110 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +100.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 10th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 60.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the most pass-heavy team in the league near the goal line (context-neutralized) right now with a 65.2% red zone pass rate.

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs offense as the 8th-quickest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 27.04 seconds per play.

THE BLITZ projects Patrick Mahomes to attempt 37.4 passes in this game, on average: the 5th-most of all QBs.

The Kansas City Chiefs O-line ranks as the 7th-best in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a strong impact on all passing attack stats across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Chiefs are a huge 12.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 27.7 pass attempts per game versus the Chicago Bears defense since the start of last season: least in the league.

Patrick Mahomes's throwing precision has worsened this year, with his Completion% falling off from 67.7% to 60.3%.

More Patrick Mahomes Player Props

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