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Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes TD Passes
Player Prop Week 21

Baltimore Ravens vs Kansas City Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-155/+125).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Chiefs are a 4.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script.

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 65.0% of their plays: the greatest clip on the slate this week.

The model projects the Chiefs to be the 2nd-most pass-heavy offense in football near the goal line (context-neutralized) right now with a 66.1% red zone pass rate.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is projected by our trusted projection set to have 133.4 total plays called: the most on the slate this week.

This week, Patrick Mahomes is anticipated by the projections to total the most pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 40.2.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 5th-lowest rate in football vs. the Ravens defense this year (65.7% Adjusted Completion%).

The Ravens defense has given up the fewest passing TDs in football: 1.00 per game this year.

When it comes to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Baltimore's group of safeties has been phenomenal this year, ranking as the best in the NFL.

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