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Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes TD Passes
Player Prop Week 20

Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-180/+150).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 63.6% of their opportunities: the highest frequency on the slate this week.

At the present time, the 2nd-most pass-heavy offense in football near the end zone (66.2% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Chiefs.

In this game, Patrick Mahomes is forecasted by our trusted projection set to total the most pass attempts among all QBs with 39.2.

The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line ranks as the 8th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.

Patrick Mahomes has been one of the top TD passers in the league this year, averaging a terrific 1.65 per game while checking in at the 76th percentile.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The predictive model expects the Chiefs to call the 3rd-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 65.4 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics.

Opposing teams teams have been disinclined to pass too much against the Bills, totaling the 6th-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 30.8 per game) this year.

The Buffalo Bills defense has allowed the 3rd-fewest passing TDs in the NFL: 1.11 per game this year.

The Bills cornerbacks rank as the 2nd-best collection of CBs in the league this year in defending pass-catchers.

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