Patrick Mahomes TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Patrick Mahomes

NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

TD Passes

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 2, 2023

Updated Sep 17, 2023 5:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+120/-150).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +130 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 6th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 63.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the most pass-centric team in the league near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 64.4% red zone pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the most plays run out of all the games this week at 134.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Patrick Mahomes to attempt 40.7 passes in this week's contest, on average: the 2nd-most of all QBs.
Opposing teams have averaged 35.1 pass attempts per game versus the Jacksonville Jaguars defense since the start of last season: 8th-most in the league.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a 3.5-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
Patrick Mahomes's passing accuracy has diminished this season, with his Completion% falling off from 67.5% to 54.3%.
The Jacksonville Jaguars cornerbacks project as the 3rd-best collection of CBs in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.

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