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Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes TD Passes
Player Prop Week 16

Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders

Patrick Mahomes TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-200/+160).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Chiefs to pass on 60.6% of their plays: the 8th-highest rate among all teams this week.

The projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to be the most pass-oriented team in the NFL near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 66.3% red zone pass rate.

The predictive model expects Patrick Mahomes to attempt 37.4 passes in this game, on average: the 7th-most among all quarterbacks.

As it relates to pass protection (and the positive effect it has on all passing game stats), the offensive line of the Kansas City Chiefs ranks as the 10th-best in the NFL this year.

With an exceptional 67.5% Adjusted Completion% (83rd percentile) this year, Patrick Mahomes rates as one of the most accurate passers in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Chiefs are a massive 10.5-point favorite this week, indicating an extreme rushing game script.

Windy weather conditions (like the 15-mph being called for in this game) generally correlate with worse passing efficiency, reduced air volume, and increased rush volume.

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