Patrick Mahomes TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Patrick Mahomes

NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

TD Passes

New England Patriots vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 18, 2023 12:16 AM EST

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-180/+140).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -170 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -180.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 4th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 62.0% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
At the present time, the 2nd-most pass-centric offense in the NFL in the red zone (65.3% in a neutral context) according to our trusted projection set is the Chiefs.
In this game, Patrick Mahomes is expected by the predictive model to total the 2nd-most pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 38.6.
With an exceptional 67.2% Adjusted Completion% (76th percentile) this year, Patrick Mahomes places as one of the best precision passers in football.
With a stellar rate of 1.77 per game (84th percentile), Patrick Mahomes stands among the leading touchdown passers in the NFL this year.

Favors Under

With a 3.5-point advantage, the Chiefs are favored in this week's game, implying more of an emphasis on rushing than their usual game plan.
This year, the formidable Patriots defense has conceded a measly 1.08 touchdowns through the air per game to opposing teams: the 2nd-lowest rate in the league.

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