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Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes TD Passes
Player Prop Week 14

Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills

Patrick Mahomes TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+155/-205).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 64.6% of their opportunities: the 2nd-greatest rate among all teams this week.

Our trusted projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 2nd-most pass-focused offense in football near the end zone (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 65.0% red zone pass rate.

Based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Chiefs are expected by the projection model to run 65.5 total plays in this game: the 9th-most among all teams this week.

The leading projections forecast Patrick Mahomes to throw 40.3 passes in this contest, on average: the most out of all QBs.

With a fantastic 68.3% Adjusted Completion% (79th percentile) this year, Patrick Mahomes stands among the best precision passers in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Opposing QBs have averaged 34.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Bills defense this year: 9th-fewest in the NFL.

As it relates to cornerbacks in covering receivers, Buffalo's CB corps has been excellent this year, grading out as the 2nd-best in the NFL.

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