Patrick Mahomes TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Patrick Mahomes

NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

TD Passes

Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 11, 2023 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+155/-205).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 64.6% of their opportunities: the 2nd-greatest rate among all teams this week.
Our trusted projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 2nd-most pass-focused offense in football near the end zone (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 65.0% red zone pass rate.
Based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Chiefs are expected by the projection model to run 65.5 total plays in this game: the 9th-most among all teams this week.
The leading projections forecast Patrick Mahomes to throw 40.3 passes in this contest, on average: the most out of all QBs.
With a fantastic 68.3% Adjusted Completion% (79th percentile) this year, Patrick Mahomes stands among the best precision passers in football.

Favors Under

Opposing QBs have averaged 34.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Bills defense this year: 9th-fewest in the NFL.
As it relates to cornerbacks in covering receivers, Buffalo's CB corps has been excellent this year, grading out as the 2nd-best in the NFL.

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