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Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes TD Passes
Player Prop Week 13

Green Bay Packers vs Kansas City Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-210/+160).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The projections expect the Chiefs to be the 5th-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 62.0% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.

At the present time, the 2nd-most pass-heavy team in the NFL near the goal line (65.7% context-neutralized) according to the projections is the Kansas City Chiefs.

The leading projections forecast Patrick Mahomes to throw 38.5 passes this week, on average: the 3rd-most among all quarterbacks.

Patrick Mahomes checks in as one of the most accurate quarterbacks in the NFL this year with a stellar 68.6% Adjusted Completion%, grading out in the 77th percentile.

Patrick Mahomes has been among the top touchdown passers in the NFL this year, averaging an outstanding 1.91 per game while grading out in the 89th percentile.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This game's spread suggests a running game script for the Chiefs, who are favored by 5.5 points.

At the present time, the 10th-slowest paced team in football (in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Chiefs.

Opposing offenses teams have been hesitant to pass too much against the Packers, totaling the 9th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 34.4 per game) this year.

This year, the fierce Green Bay Packers defense has surrendered a meager 1.09 TDs through the air per game to opposing offenses: the 6th-best rate in the league.

The Packers cornerbacks project as the 9th-best group of CBs in football this year in defending receivers.

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