Patrick Mahomes TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Patrick Mahomes

NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

TD Passes

Las Vegas Raiders vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 27, 2023 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-245/+186).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -178 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -245.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 5th-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 63.6% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast the Kansas City Chiefs to be the most pass-heavy offense in the league near the end zone (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 66.0% red zone pass rate.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
In this week's contest, Patrick Mahomes is predicted by the projection model to have the 3rd-most pass attempts out of all QBs with 39.0.
With an impressive 67.8% Adjusted Completion% (75th percentile) this year, Patrick Mahomes stands as one of the most accurate passers in football.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a huge 9.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
The Raiders defense has conceded the 8th-fewest passing touchdowns in the league: 1.18 per game this year.

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