Patrick Mahomes TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

TD Passes

Kansas City Chiefs vs Detroit Lions · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 7, 2023 11:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +140 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 63.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the most pass-oriented offense in the league near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 66.0% red zone pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 129.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Patrick Mahomes to attempt 39.1 passes in this week's contest, on average: the 2nd-most of all QBs.
Opposing offenses have averaged 34.8 pass attempts per game versus the Detroit Lions defense since the start of last season: 10th-most in football.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating a rushing game script.
The Kansas City Chiefs have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a mere 1.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the NFL). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat accumulation.
The Kansas City Chiefs have elected to go for it on 4th down a measly 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (least in football), which typically means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.